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1982
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Indicators called the bear market bottom.
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1984
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Indicators called the top and bottom of the bear market within weeks.
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1987
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Indicators called the crash; turned bullish in February 1988.
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1990
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Sell signal was given in early August 1990, and buy signal given on September 29,
1990. Wall Street strategists were overwhelmingly bearish at the market bottom.
The S&P 500 fell over 20.0 percent from the sell signal to the buy signal.
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1994
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Indicators were bullish late in the year when Wall Street strategists were overwhelmingly
bearish.
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1996
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Became bearish using Commerce Dept’s tax-return earnings months before Greenspan
made his "irrational exuberance" speech. Commerce tax-return earnings declined from
1997 to 2001, while S&P 500 shareholders earnings advanced; the market incorrectly
followed shareholders earnings higher. Such earnings were falsely inflated by including
phantom profits and fraudulent practices. This was finally brought to a head with
Enron and S&P issuing a "core earnings" measure in 2002. The market created
a bubble that eventually burst.
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1997
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Indicators bullish in early February when began using S&P operating profit data
instead of income-tax cash-flow earnings in our models.
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1998
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Indicators fell to a 42 percent correction level in May, and to a bullish reading
of 75 percent in early October. S&P 500 declined 19 percent from July 17 to
October 8.
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1999
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Indicators showed the S&P 500 was more than 45 percent overvalued using S&P
profit numbers. Indicators dropped to below 40 percent in June, but not yet to a
30 percent sell signal.
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2000
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Indicators fell below 30 percent bear market signal in early May.
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2001
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Indicators turned bullish when Fed eased in January; April was a successful test
and a 20 percent S&P 500 rally followed with stronger rallies for some other
indexes. Terrorist attack on the WTC (9/11) caused another drop. Indicators were
bullish in late September. Stocks rallied over 20 percent.
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2002
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Indicators showed rally was over in March-April. Russell peaked on April 16, for
a 40 percent rise, while the Nasdaq rose about 50 percent. Indicators were at 42
percent correction signal by mid-June, before the 20 percent July decline. The indicators
rose over 65 percent in late August, before the 2002 bottom on October 9th. To the
bull market top (Oct. 9th, 2007), the S&P 500 was up 101.5 percent and the Dow
94.4 percent from their 2002 bear market bottoms.
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2003-06
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Indicators bullish. S&P 500 up 2003 to April 2006.
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2006
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Indicators fell in early May to correction level of 41.5 percent. We called for
a 5 to 10 percent correction for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 fell by 8.0 percent
and the Nasdaq by 15.0 percent. We said correction was over on June 13th.
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2007
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Indicators bullish. S&P 500 peaked in October.
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2008
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Correction signal given January 4th at 41.0 percent, at S&P 500 1447.0. Bear
market sell signal given in March. Short-term buy signal on August 8, but
in early September instituted 100.0 percent hedged position through December 31st,
and S&P 500 dropped by 42.0 percent from September to December.
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2009
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Continue 100.0 percent hedge until March. March 13th unhedged portfolios for 100
percent exposure to equities. April 3, 2009 indicators rose to over 65.0 percent.
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2010
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Hedge signal in April and then end of correction signal in July. Continuation of bull market.
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2011
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Bullish
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2012
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Bullish
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2013
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Bullish
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2014
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Bullish
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2015
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Bullish
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2016
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Bullish
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2017
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Bullish
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2018
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Bullish
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