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Track Record of Stock Market Buy and Sell Signals
Since 1982 (From Garzarelli Published Reports)

Elaine Garzarelli Track Record
1982 Indicators called the bear market bottom.
1984 Indicators called the top and bottom of the bear market within weeks.
1987 Indicators called the crash; turned bullish in February 1988.
1990 Sell signal was given in early August 1990, and buy signal given on September 29, 1990. Wall Street strategists were overwhelmingly bearish at the market bottom. The S&P 500 fell over 20.0 percent from the sell signal to the buy signal.
1994 Indicators were bullish late in the year when Wall Street strategists were overwhelmingly bearish.
1996 Became bearish using Commerce Dept’s tax-return earnings months before Greenspan made his "irrational exuberance" speech. Commerce tax-return earnings declined from 1997 to 2001, while S&P 500 shareholders earnings advanced; the market incorrectly followed shareholders earnings higher. Such earnings were falsely inflated by including phantom profits and fraudulent practices. This was finally brought to a head with Enron and S&P issuing a "core earnings" measure in 2002. The market created a bubble that eventually burst.
1997 Indicators bullish in early February when began using S&P operating profit data instead of income-tax cash-flow earnings in our models.
1998 Indicators fell to a 42 percent correction level in May, and to a bullish reading of 75 percent in early October. S&P 500 declined 19 percent from July 17 to October 8.
1999 Indicators showed the S&P 500 was more than 45 percent overvalued using S&P profit numbers. Indicators dropped to below 40 percent in June, but not yet to a 30 percent sell signal.
2000 Indicators fell below 30 percent bear market signal in early May.
2001 Indicators turned bullish when Fed eased in January; April was a successful test and a 20 percent S&P 500 rally followed with stronger rallies for some other indexes. Terrorist attack on the WTC (9/11) caused another drop. Indicators were bullish in late September. Stocks rallied over 20 percent.
2002 Indicators showed rally was over in March-April. Russell peaked on April 16, for a 40 percent rise, while the Nasdaq rose about 50 percent. Indicators were at 42 percent correction signal by mid-June, before the 20 percent July decline. The indicators rose over 65 percent in late August, before the 2002 bottom on October 9th. To the bull market top (Oct. 9th, 2007), the S&P 500 was up 101.5 percent and the Dow 94.4 percent from their 2002 bear market bottoms.
2003-06 Indicators bullish. S&P 500 up 2003 to April 2006.
2006  Indicators fell in early May to correction level of 41.5 percent. We called for a 5 to 10 percent correction for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 fell by 8.0 percent and the Nasdaq by 15.0 percent. We said correction was over on June 13th.
2007  Indicators bullish. S&P 500 peaked in October.
2008
Correction signal given January 4th at 41.0 percent, at S&P 500 1447.0. Bear market sell signal given in March. Short-term buy signal on August 8, but in early September instituted 100.0 percent hedged position through December 31st, and S&P 500 dropped by 42.0 percent from September to December.
2009
Continue 100.0 percent hedge until March. March 13th unhedged portfolios for 100 percent exposure to equities. April 3, 2009 indicators rose to over 65.0 percent.
2010
Hedge signal in April and then end of correction signal in July. Continuation of bull market.
2011
Bullish
2012
Bullish
2013
Bullish
2014
Bullish
2015
Bullish
2016
Bullish
2017
Bullish
2018
Bullish
2019
Bullish
2020
Bullish
2021
Bullish
 
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