|
Track Record of Stock Market Buy and Sell Signals
Since 1982 (From
Garzarelli Published Reports)
| 1982 |
Indicators called the bear market bottom. |
| 1984 | Indicators called the top and bottom of the bear market within weeks. |
| 1987 | Indicators called the crash; turned bullish in February 1988. |
| 1990 | Sell signal was given in early August 1990, and buy signal given on September 29, 1990. Wall Street strategists were overwhelmingly bearish at the market bottom. The S&P 500 fell over 20.0 percent from the sell signal to the buy signal. |
| 1994 | Indicators were bullish late in the year when Wall Street strategists were overwhelmingly bearish. |
| 1996 |
Wrong Call: Indicators bearish using Commerce Dept’s tax-return earnings in our model. This was months before Greenspan made his "irrational exuberance" speech. Such earnings were not distorted with phantom profits such as Enron’s. Commerce tax-return earnings declined from 1997 to 2001, while S&P 500 shareholders earnings advanced and the market incorrectly followed shareholders earnings. Shareholder’s earnings were falsely inflated by including phantom profits and fraudulent practices. This was finally brought to a head with Enron and S&P issuing a "core earnings" measure. The market created a bubble that eventually burst. |
| 1997 | Indicators bullish in early February when we began using shareholder profits instead of income-tax earnings in our models because shareholders profits are what Wall Street followed. |
| 1998 | Indicators fell to a 42 percent correction level in May, and to a bullish reading of 75 percent in early October. S&P 500 declined 19 percent from July 17 to October 8. |
| 1999 |
Indicators showed the S&P 500 was more than 45 percent overvalued using S&P
profit numbers. Indicators dropped to below 40 percent in June, but not yet to a
30 percent sell signal. |
| 2000 |
Indicators fell below 30 percent bear market signal in early May. |
| 2001 |
Indicators turned bullish when Fed eased in January; April was a successful test
and a 20 percent S&P 500 rally followed with stronger rallies for some other
indexes. Terrorist attack on the WTC (9/11) caused another drop. Indicators were
bullish in late September. Stocks rallied over 20 percent. |
| 2002 |
Indicators showed rally was over in March-April. Russell peaked on April 16, for
a 40 percent rise, while the Nasdaq rose about 50 percent. Indicators were at 42
percent correction signal by mid-June, before the 20 percent July decline. The indicators
rose over 65 percent in late August, before the 2002 bottom on October 9th. To the
bull market top (Oct. 9th, 2007), the S&P 500 was up 101.5 percent and the Dow
94.4 percent from their 2002 bear market bottoms. |
| 2003-06 |
Indicators bullish. S&P 500 up 2003 to April 2006. |
| 2006 | Indicators fell in early May to correction level of 41.5 percent. We called for a 5 to 10 percent correction for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 fell by 8.0 percent and the Nasdaq by 15.0 percent. We said correction was over on June 13th. |
| 2007 |
Indicators bullish. S&P 500 peaked in October. |
|
2008 |
Correction signal given January 4th at 41.0 percent, at S&P 500 1447.0. Bear market sell signal given in March. Short-term buy signal on August 8, but in early September instituted 100.0 percent hedged position through December 31st, and S&P 500 dropped by 42.0 percent from September to December. |
|
2009 |
Continue 100.0 percent hedge until March. March 13th unhedged portfolios for 100 percent exposure to equities. April 3, 2009 indicators rose to over 65.0 percent. |
|
2010 |
Hedge signal in April and then end of correction signal in July. Continuation of bull market. |
|
2011 |
Bullish |
|
2012 |
Bullish |
|
2013 |
Bullish |
|
2014 |
Bullish |
|
2015 |
Bullish |
|
2016 |
Bullish |
|
2017 |
Bullish |
|
2018 |
Bullish |
|
2019 |
Bullish |
|
2020 |
Bullish |
|
2021 |
Bullish |
|
2022 |
Wrong Call: Bearish - Indicators turned bearish after the bear market in mid-December, at 28%. |
|
2023 |
Bullish: Using our judgement, we turned bullish February 3rd, realizing that the economic cycle, Fed cycle, and stock market cycles were out of sync with each other due to the pandemic. Eventually these cycles will return to normal and be aligned again with each other and our indicators. Our indicators remain bearish. |
| INDICATOR SIGNALS from Sector Analysis reports published by A.G. Becker, Shearson American Express, Lehman Brothers, and Garzarelli Capital. (Audited results by Coopers & Lybrand 1980 – 98, from published reports 1999 to 2023). | |